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Choosing the choice: Reflections on modelling decisions and behaviour in demographic agent-based models
Jonathan Gray1, Jason Hilton1, Jakub Bijak1
1a University of Southampton.
Population Studies
|October 25, 2017
Summary
Choosing the right choice models for demographic agent-based models is complex. This study advocates for empirically driven, modular, and multi-model approaches to human decision-making simulations, especially for migration research.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Computational Social Science
- Agent-Based Modeling
Background:
- Demographic agent-based models (ABMs) require sophisticated choice models.
- Existing models often struggle with context, time preference, uncertainty, and agent heterogeneity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate challenges in selecting choice models for demographic ABMs.
- To propose a framework for improving human decision-making simulations.
Main Methods:
- Literature review of choice modeling in demographic ABMs.
- Analysis of decision-making factors: context, time preference, uncertainty, and heterogeneity.
- Case study focus on migration models.
Main Results:
- No single strategy adequately addresses decision modeling issues in demographic ABMs.
- Context, time preference, uncertainty, and agent heterogeneity are critical factors.
- Migration models highlight the complexities of choice modeling.
Conclusions:
- Advocates for empirically driven, modular, and multi-model approaches.
- Recommends an iterative process of data collection and simulation experiments.
- Emphasizes the need for flexible and adaptive simulation design.
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