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[Regional life expectancy rankings : Methodological artefacts in population updates]
Franziska Poppe1, Rolf Annuß2, Joseph Kuhn3
1Sachgebiet GE 4.2, Bayerisches Landesamt für Gesundheit und Lebensmittelsicherheit, Veterinärstraße 2, 85764, Oberschleißheim, Deutschland. franziska.poppe@lgl.bayern.de.
Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz
|October 25, 2017
Summary
Regional life expectancy calculations depend on accurate population data from censuses. Changes in census data, like switching from 1987 to 2011, can impact life expectancy rankings, highlighting the need for careful interpretation of small-scale differences.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Public Health
- Statistical Analysis
Background:
- Life expectancy calculations require accurate regional mortality and population data.
- Population data relies on censuses, mandated every 10 years by EU regulation.
- Germany's last census was in 2011, with subsequent population updates incorporating births, deaths, and migration.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the impact of transitioning from the 1987 to the 2011 census on regional life expectancy calculations.
- To examine how changes in population statistics affect life expectancy rankings in Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia.
- To understand the influence of population data inaccuracies on small-scale life expectancy comparisons.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of life expectancy rankings before and after the 2011 census.
- Examination of regional population statistics derived from the 1987 and 2011 censuses.
- Assessment of changes in calculated life expectancy based on updated population figures.
Main Results:
- Significant changes in calculated life expectancy correlate with substantial shifts in population statistics.
- Changes in life expectancy rankings do not always align with the magnitude of population number changes.
- Regional life expectancy rankings are consistently influenced by inaccuracies in underlying population statistics.
Conclusions:
- The transition between census data (1987 to 2011) demonstrably impacts regional life expectancy calculations.
- While population data changes affect life expectancy values, ranking shifts are not always proportional.
- Inaccuracies in population statistics are a critical factor to consider when interpreting regional life expectancy differences.
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