Spatio-temporal models to determine association between Campylobacter cases and environment.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Epidemiology
• Public Health Microbiology
• One Health

Background:

• Campylobacteriosis is a significant cause of gastroenteritis in the UK.
• While food sources cause 70% of cases, environmental exposure likely explains the remainder.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate wider environmental transmission routes of Campylobacter.
• To analyze the spatio-temporal association between human Campylobacter cases and environmental factors in the Tyne catchment.

Main Methods:

• Conducted a 5-year spatio-temporal analysis using a hydrological model for surface-water flow prediction.
• Employed a two-stage modeling framework to assess associations between case rates and environmental variables (weather, climate, land use, soil type).
• Utilized linear mixed-effects models to analyze temporal variations and spatial variations in subcatchments.

Main Results:

• Population-adjusted Campylobacter case rates correlated with high surface-water flow and above-average temperatures.
• Subcatchments with cattle on stagnogley soils showed higher case rates.
• Areas with sheep and cattle grazing also exhibited increased Campylobacter case rates.

Conclusions:

• Stagnogley soils with mixed livestock grazing are potential hotspots for Campylobacter spread and exposure.
• High rainfall periods exacerbate environmental Campylobacter transmission risks.
• Understanding these environmental links is crucial for reducing human Campylobacter infections.