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Observed drought indices show increasing divergence across Europe
James H Stagge1,2, Daniel G Kingston3, Lena M Tallaksen4
1University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences, Oslo, Norway. james.stagge@usu.edu.
Scientific Reports
|October 27, 2017
Summary
Climate change is altering European drought patterns. Rising temperatures increase drought severity in the south while counteracting precipitation increases in the north, showing observable climate change impacts.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Environmental Science
- Meteorology
Background:
- Recent severe European droughts prompt investigation into climate change impacts.
- Drought definitions vary, complicating the assessment of changes in drought likelihood.
- Understanding regional drought variations is crucial for climate change adaptation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate regional divergence in drought likelihood across Europe using prominent meteorological drought indices.
- To compare observed drought changes with climate change projections.
- To identify the causes of observed differences in drought patterns.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of drought likelihood using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 1958-2014.
- Assessment of temperature and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends.
- Comparison of index-based drought changes with climate change projections.
Main Results:
- A regional divergence in drought likelihood was observed between SPI and SPEI across Europe.
- Increasing temperatures from 1970-2014 led to increased reference evapotranspiration (ET0), particularly impacting SPEI-measured drought area.
- Both indices show increased drought frequency in southern Europe and decreased frequency in northern Europe.
Conclusions:
- Climate change impacts on European drought are potentially observable.
- Increased temperatures exacerbate drought conditions in southern Europe.
- Discrepancies among drought indices may arise in a non-stationary climate, necessitating careful index selection.
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