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Updated: Feb 20, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Finding water scarcity amid abundance using human-natural system models.

William K Jaeger¹, Adell Amos², Daniel P Bigelow³

¹Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331; wjaeger@oregonstate.edu.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|October 29, 2017

Summary

Anticipating future water scarcity is crucial for social-ecological systems. Detailed regional models reveal that even abundant basins face localized shortages due to climate change and socioeconomic growth.

Keywords:

climate change conveyance cost coupled human–natural system hydro-economic model water scarcity

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Area of Science:

Environmental science
Climate change modeling
Socio-hydrology

Background:

Water scarcity is a global challenge impacting social-ecological systems.
Predicting water shortages is complex due to system heterogeneity and dynamics.
Regional models are essential for understanding localized water availability.

Purpose of the Study:

To model future water availability and use under climate change and socioeconomic growth.
To identify key drivers of water scarcity at a regional scale.
To highlight the spatial and temporal variability of water scarcity.

Main Methods:

Development of a detailed coupled human-natural system model for a specific region.
Simulation of climate change and socioeconomic growth impacts on water resources.
Analysis of water availability, use, and scarcity patterns.

Main Results:

Water scarcity exhibits significant local and temporal variations, even in generally water-rich areas.
Climate change and socioeconomic factors critically influence future water availability and demand.
Unexpected and counterintuitive patterns of water scarcity were identified.

Conclusions:

Water transport, storage costs, institutional frameworks, and opportunity costs are key determinants of water scarcity.
Detailed regional modeling is vital for effective water resource management and policy.
Proactive strategies are needed to address localized water stress and ensure water security.