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Expectation Violation in Political Decision Making: A Psychological Case Study.

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Summary

Mental sets, or "Einstellung," can cause problem-solving impasses by constraining options. This study applies this concept to political decision-making, showing how preconceived notions lead to flawed expectations and problem representation.

Keywords:
expectancyexpectation violationmental setpolitical-decision-makingproblem-solving

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Political Science
  • Decision Making

Background:

  • The concept of mental set ('Einstellung') explains how prior successful strategies can hinder new problem-solving by constraining options.
  • Previous research primarily used restricted laboratory experiments to study mental sets.
  • There is a need to explore mental set phenomena in complex, naturalistic decision-making contexts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how mental sets influence political decision-making by causing misinterpretation of facts.
  • To demonstrate how mental sets lead to erroneous expectations and ill-defined problem representations in political contexts.
  • To propose a theoretical model for expectation violation in political decision-making and suggest new research approaches.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of historical political decision-making using the Franco regime's stabilization post-WWII as a case study.
  • Reconstruction of how mental sets may have led to misinterpretations and erroneous expectations.
  • Examination of the principle that preconceived notions often override new information.

Main Results:

  • Mental sets can significantly impact complex political decision-making, extending beyond laboratory settings.
  • Erroneous expectations, based on pre-existing beliefs, were observed to be a basis for political decisions.
  • The study highlights how discrepancies between beliefs and new information are resolved in favor of existing notions.

Conclusions:

  • A theoretical model for expectation violation in political decision-making is proposed.
  • The findings suggest that mental sets play a crucial role in maintaining flawed decision-making processes.
  • Novel cognitive empirical research methods are suggested for studying expectation violation in political contexts.