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Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures.

Zhongyuan Ruan1, Ming Tang2, Changgui Gu3

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This study models epidemic spreading in two coupled subpopulations, showing that network structure and mobility impact disease transmission. Increased interconnection raises epidemic risk, while travel rate effects are complex.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Network Science
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Epidemic spreading is significantly influenced by contact network structure and agent mobility.
  • Existing models often focus on one factor, neglecting the interplay between contact patterns and recurrent mobility.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate epidemic dynamics in a model with two coupled subpopulations, considering both intra-structure and inter-population interactions.
  • To analyze the simultaneous effects of contact structure and recurrent mobility on epidemic thresholds and spreading patterns.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a mathematical model for two coupled subpopulations with internal structures.
  • Analysis of epidemic threshold and infected density variations based on interconnection probability and travel rate.

Main Results:

  • Coupling subpopulations synchronizes epidemic thresholds across subnetworks.
  • Increasing interconnection probability monotonically decreases the epidemic threshold, elevating epidemic risk.
  • Epidemic threshold shows non-monotonic behavior with increasing travel rate; asymptotic infected density varies with interconnection probability.

Conclusions:

  • Simultaneous consideration of contact structure and mobility is crucial for understanding epidemic spreading.
  • Interconnection probability and travel rate are key parameters that modulate epidemic risk and dynamics in coupled systems.