Factors determining in-hospital or late survival after aortic valve replacement

To ascertain incremental risk factors for in-hospital and late mortality of patients undergoing AVR with the bovine pericardial valve, multiple variables were analyzed in a group of 240 patients undergoing AVR between 1977 and 1983. Follow-up totaled 12,023 patient-months (mean, 52.7 +/- 1.7 patient-months) and was 100 percent complete. Univariate analysis of incremental risk factors for in-hospital mortality identified the following: age over 60 years (p = 0.015); and advanced preoperative NYHA class (p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis of risk factors for in-hospital mortality identified the following: age (p = 0.038); NYHA class (p = 0.018); and year of operation (p = 0.049). Incremental risk factors for late mortality were identified as age (p = 0.003), year of operation (p = 0.003), concomitant procedure (p = 0.047), and valvular lesion (regurgitation) (p = 0.053). Actuarial survival of patients (+/- SE) was 87 +/- 2 percent, 75 +/- 3 percent, and 61 +/- 5 percent at 2, 5, and 8.7 years, respectively. The actuarial survival of patients experiencing valve-related events was 62.6 +/- 10.1 percent at 8.7 years, compared to 55.4 +/- 7 percent for those who did not (p = 0.38).