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Predicting manure volatile solid output of lactating dairy cows.

J A D R N Appuhamy1, L E Moraes2, C Wagner-Riddle3

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New models accurately estimate volatile solids (VS) and biodegradable VS (dVS) in dairy cow manure using farm data. This improves methane emission calculations from stored manure, aiding environmental management.

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Environmental Science
  • Animal Science

Background:

  • Methane emissions from livestock manure are influenced by volatile solids (VS), comprising biodegradable (dVS) and nonbiodegradable fractions.
  • Current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 guidelines use VS for methane estimation, but only dVS generates methane.
  • Accurate estimation of dVS is crucial for precise methane emission calculations from dairy manure.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate mathematical models for estimating VS and dVS outputs from lactating dairy cows.
  • To compare the predictive accuracy of new models against the existing IPCC Tier 2 methodology.
  • To provide practical tools for dairy farms to improve methane emission estimations.

Main Methods:

  • Developed empirical models using 857 VS and dVS measurements from 43 metabolic trials at USDA.
  • Utilized predictor variables such as organic matter intake, dietary crude protein, and neutral detergent fiber.
  • Validated models with an independent dataset of 209 VS and dVS measurements from UC Davis trials.

Main Results:

  • New models incorporating organic matter intake and dietary components accurately predicted VS (RMSPE 12.5%) and dVS (RMSPE 12.7%).
  • The IPCC Tier 2 model showed a higher RMSPE (13.7%) and overpredicted VS.
  • Models utilizing dry matter intake (DMI) predicted by the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System also showed good performance for VS and dVS.

Conclusions:

  • Empirical models were developed to accurately predict VS and dVS in dairy cows using routinely available farm data.
  • These models offer a more precise method for estimating methane emissions from stored manure compared to current IPCC guidelines.
  • The findings support improved environmental management strategies in dairy farming through better emission quantification.