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Validation of Three Scoring Risk-Stratification Models for Thyroid Nodules.

Su Min Ha1, Hye Shin Ahn1, Jung Hwan Baek2

  • 11 Department of Radiology, Chung-Ang University Hospital, Chung-Ang University College of Medicine , Seoul, Korea.

Thyroid : Official Journal of the American Thyroid Association
|November 8, 2017
PubMed
Summary

This study validated three thyroid nodule risk models. The web-based system showed the best calibration for predicting malignancy, offering simpler guidance for patient management.

Keywords:
thyroid TIRADSthyroid cancerthyroid guidelinesthyroid nodulesultrasound

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Area of Science:

  • Radiology
  • Oncology
  • Medical Informatics

Background:

  • Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data Systems (TIRADSs) were developed to reduce harm from fine-needle aspiration.
  • Risk stratification of thyroid nodules is crucial for appropriate management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To validate three thyroid nodule risk-stratification models using ultrasonography features.
  • To compare a web-based system, Korean Society of Thyroid Radiology model, and American College of Radiology model.

Main Methods:

  • Ultrasonography features (content, echogenicity, shape, margin, calcifications) of 1112 thyroid nodules from 954 patients were assessed.
  • Discrimination ability was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
  • Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

Main Results:

  • Thyroid malignancy was confirmed in 37.2% of nodules.
  • All three models demonstrated acceptable predictive accuracy with similar AUC values (0.875-0.891).
  • The web-based scoring system exhibited the best calibration (p=0.078).

Conclusions:

  • Ultrasonography-based risk-stratification models for thyroid nodules show comparable predictive accuracy.
  • The web-based scoring system offers superior calibration and may simplify clinical decision-making.
  • An accessible web-based system can streamline personalized management of thyroid nodules.