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Updated: Feb 19, 2026

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections
Sjannie Lefevre1, David J McKenzie2, Göran E Nilsson1
1Department of Biosciences, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Abstract:
In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung () provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W∞ ). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, dG . Here we find that changing both dG and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W∞ is unlikely to be explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world.
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