Application of ensemble surrogates and adaptive sequential sampling to optimal groundwater remediation design at...

In this study, we aimed to develop an optimal groundwater remediation design for sites contaminated by dense non-aqueous phase liquids by using an ensemble of surrogates and adaptive sequential sampling. Compared with previous approaches, our proposed method has the following advantages: (1) a surrogate surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation simulation model is constructed using a Gaussian process; (2) the accuracy of the surrogate model is improved by constructing ensemble surrogates using five different surrogate modelling techniques, i.e., polynomial response surface, radial basis function, Kriging, support vector regression, and Gaussian process; (3) we conducted comparisons and analyses based on 31 surrogate models derived from different combinations of the five surrogate modelling techniques; and (4) the reliability of the optimal solution was improved by implementing adaptive sequential sampling. The two proposed methods were applied to a hypothetical perchloroethylene-contaminated site in order to demonstrate their performance. The results showed that the best surrogate model integrated all five of the surrogate modelling methods, with an R² value of 0.9913 and a root mean squared error of 0.0159, thereby demonstrating the advantage of using ensemble surrogates. In addition, the reliability of the optimization model solution was improved by adaptive sequential sampling, which avoided false solutions.