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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
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Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation.

Nate G McDowell1, Sean T Michaletz2, Katrina E Bennett2

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Global ecosystems face increasing risks from climate change, leading to chronic disequilibrium and novel conditions. Understanding these changes is crucial for future resilience planning and resource stability.

Keywords:
disequilibriumecosystem theoryhydrology

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Societal demand for stable ecosystem resources is rising.
  • Climate-driven disturbances (drought, heat, insect outbreaks, wildfire) are increasing.
  • Rising temperatures and extreme events create chronic ecosystem disequilibrium.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explain the projected increase in extreme chronic ecosystem disequilibrium globally.
  • To introduce novel theory linking plant mortality to ecosystem function.
  • To highlight the need for proactive resilience planning.

Main Methods:

  • Combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling.
  • Links size-dependent plant mortality to ecosystem stocks and fluxes.
  • Analyzes the drivers of chronic ecosystem disequilibrium.

Main Results:

  • Extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase globally.
  • This will create no-analog conditions challenging adaptation.
  • Changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes are linked to plant mortality.

Conclusions:

  • Anticipating and modeling chronic ecosystem disequilibrium is essential.
  • Resilience planning must account for these increasing risks.
  • Novel conditions will challenge current adaptation strategies.