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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

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Published on: July 24, 2016

An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

Gina L Tonn¹, Seth D Guikema²

¹Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

|November 18, 2017

Summary

Community flood risk is influenced by individual actions and policies. This study uses an agent-based model (ABM) to show how mitigation and individual behavior impact flood damage over time.

Keywords:

Agent-based model flood mitigation flood risk

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Area of Science:

Environmental Science
Urban Planning
Risk Management

Background:

Traditional flood risk models often overlook the dynamic interplay between human behavior and policy.
Understanding the temporal evolution of flood risk requires integrating behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard factors.

Purpose of the Study:

To enhance the understanding of temporal flood risk dynamics.
To develop a novel modeling approach integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions.
To analyze the influence of flood protection measures and individual decisions on community flood risk.

Main Methods:

Utilized an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate community flood risk.
Focused on agent decisions regarding information dissemination, flood protection installation, and home/equipment elevation.
Employed a place-based case study in Fargo, North Dakota, for generalizable insights.

Main Results:

Community mitigation strategies generally lead to reduced future flood damage.
Individual actions, including mitigation and residential relocation, significantly influence community flood risk.
Demonstrated the complex interplay between individual and community actions in shaping flood risk evolution.

Conclusions:

Findings offer valuable insights into the feedback loops between human behavior and flood risk.
Highlights the need for more sophisticated behavioral and decision-making rules in future modeling.
Emphasizes the importance of considering both individual and community-level actions for effective flood risk management.