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Mechanistic Models: Overview of Compartment Models

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Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

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Published on: July 3, 2020

How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models.

Damien A Fordham¹, Cleo Bertelsmeier^1,2, Barry W Brook³

¹The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.

Global Change Biology

|November 21, 2017

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Complex ecological models better predict species range shifts under climate change, but simpler niche models also offer valuable insights into magnitude of change. This research compares model performance using real-world bird data.

Keywords:

climate change hybrid ecological niche model independent model validation land use mechanistic model metapopulation and dispersal dynamics species distribution model transferability

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Published on: December 7, 2021

Area of Science:

Ecology
Climate Change Biology
Biodiversity Research

Background:

Climate change impacts species distribution, necessitating accurate range shift predictions.
Existing models often simplify complex population dynamics, limiting predictive accuracy.
Direct comparisons of demographic vs. ecological niche models for range shifts are scarce.

Purpose of the Study:

To compare the predictive skill of coupled ecological-niche-population models and ecological niche models.
To evaluate model performance in forecasting documented bird species range shifts over 40 years.
To determine the influence of land use and climate variables on model accuracy.

Main Methods:

Compared coupled ecological-niche-population models with ecological niche models.
Used data from 20 British breeding bird species over a 40-year period (1970-2010).
Evaluated model forecasts using documented range shifts, considering static land use and dynamic climate data.

Main Results:

Coupled ecological-niche-population models generally showed higher accuracy in predicting species range shifts.
Accurate forecasts from complex models required simulating ecological responses without static land use data.
Simpler ecological niche models, incorporating land use and climate, improved observed range shift predictions.
Ecological niche models matched or exceeded complex models in predicting the magnitude of range size change.

Conclusions:

Coupled ecological-niche-population models offer improved accuracy for species range shift predictions when accounting for dynamics.
Ecological niche models provide a reasonable first approximation for potential range shift magnitudes, especially with limited data.
Model choice depends on data availability and the specific aspect of range shifts being investigated (e.g., precise location vs. magnitude of change).