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Published on: September 11, 2021
Using previous trial results to inform hypothesis testing of new interventions
1a Department of Medicine, Smith Center for Outcomes Research in Cardiology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School , Boston , MA , USA.
Abstract:
Results of industry-sponsored Phase III trials registered at clinicaltrials.gov include a rich amount of information on the efficacy of medical interventions. We propose that these results can be used to inform hypothesis testing of a new intervention through the Bayes principle. The posterior probability of positive efficacy offers an accessible interpretation of the uncertainty of efficacy and a convenient metric for global false-positive control.
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