FAR BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY IN URBAN CHINA

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Sociology
• Public Health

Background:

• China's urban population has undergone rapid fertility decline over six decades.
• This demographic shift significantly impacts China's future social and economic landscape.
• Systematic examination of urban fertility decline patterns is lacking.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze fertility trends and age patterns in urban China since the 1950s.
• To characterize reproductive behaviors, identifying four key 'lows': low fertility level, low higher-parity births, low mean age at birth, and low childlessness.
• To explore the drivers of these changes, including government policies and broader socio-economic factors.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of historical fertility data in urban China.
• Examination of trends in birth rates, parity, age at birth, and childlessness.
• Review of government family planning policies and socio-economic changes.

Main Results:

• Urban China exhibits extremely low fertility levels and a low proportion of higher-parity births.
• A low mean age at birth and a low level of childlessness characterize reproductive patterns.
• Homogenous reproductive behaviors are observed across China's large urban population.

Conclusions:

• Government interventions, including the 'later, longer, fewer' campaign and the 'one-child' policy, have significantly shaped China's fertility patterns.
• Broader social, economic, political, and cultural changes are also crucial drivers of fertility decline and family formation transitions.
• Understanding these multifaceted influences is key to addressing future demographic challenges in China.