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Age-Period-Cohort Modeling of Multiple Sclerosis Incidence Rates in Kuwait: 1980-2014

Saeed Akhtar1, Jarrah Al-Abkal2, Jasem Y Al-Hashel3,4

  • 1Department of Community Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, Jabriya, Kuwait.

Neuroepidemiology
|November 22, 2017
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

Multiple sclerosis (MS) incidence is rising globally. This study in Kuwait found a 7.4% annual increase in MS rates, suggesting complex genetic and environmental factors contribute to this trend.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Neurology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex immune-mediated central nervous system disorder with an unknown cause.
  • Genetic and environmental factors are implicated in MS development and its increasing global prevalence.
  • This study investigated temporal trends in MS incidence within Kuwait.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine age, period, and cohort effects on multiple sclerosis incidence rates in Kuwait.
  • To analyze trends in MS diagnosis over a 35-year period.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective cohort study utilizing data from the National MS Registry (1980-2014).
  • Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis using loglinear Poisson regression.
  • Descriptive statistics and APC parameter estimation, including net drift and age-at-onset curves.

Main Results:

  • 1,131 MS cases were identified.
  • A significant 7.4% annual increase in MS incidence was observed (Net drift = 7.4%).
  • MS incidence rates increased progressively across time periods and birth cohorts, with bimodal age-at-onset peaks at 20-24 and 45-49 years.

Conclusions:

  • A substantial and statistically significant increase in MS incidence rates was recorded in Kuwait.
  • The findings support the contribution of multiple genetic and/or environmental risk factors to the rising MS burden.
  • Further research into the biological underpinnings of the observed temporal increase in MS risk is warranted.
Keywords:
Age-period-cohort modelKuwaitMultiple sclerosisPoisson regressionRiskTemporal epidemiology

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