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Dynamics of the pneumonic plague epidemic in Madagascar, August to October 2017

Shinya Tsuzuki1, Hyojung Lee1, Fuminari Miura1,2

  • 1Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.

Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Europeen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin
|November 23, 2017
PubMed

Insights

Pneumonic plague in Madagascar has a reproduction number of 1.73 and a 5.5% case fatality risk. International spread risk from Madagascar remains very low, with less than one expected exported case during August-October 2017.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Madagascar experiences recurrent outbreaks of plague.
  • Pneumonic plague is a severe form of the disease with high transmission potential.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the transmission potential and severity of pneumonic plague in Madagascar.
  • To estimate the risk of international disease spread from Madagascar.

Main Methods:

  • Reproduction number (R0) estimation, accounting for reporting delays.
  • Case fatality risk (CFR) calculation.
  • Modeling of exported cases to global destinations.

Main Results:

  • The estimated reproduction number was 1.73, indicating potential for sustained transmission.
  • The case fatality risk was estimated at 5.5%.
  • Export risk to other countries was minimal, with fewer than 1 expected case globally.

Conclusions:

  • Pneumonic plague in Madagascar poses a significant local threat.
  • The risk of international spread from Madagascar during the study period was negligible.
  • Effective surveillance and control measures are crucial for managing plague outbreaks.
Keywords:
Basic reproduction numberCase fatality ratioOutbreakYersinia pestisimportationrisk assessment

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