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Simulating Temperature in a Soil Incubation Experiment
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Food-web dynamics under climate change.

Lai Zhang1,2, Daisuke Takahashi2, Martin Hartvig3,4

  • 1School of Mathematical Science, Yangzhou University, Si Wang Ting Road, Yangzhou 225002, People's Republic of China lai.zhang@yzu.edu.cn.

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Climate change impacts species through direct temperature effects and indirect food web changes. Even well-adapted species face unpredictable population dynamics and extinction risks due to altered ecological interactions.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecological modeling
  • Climate change biology
  • Community ecology

Background:

  • Climate change directly affects individual physiology and population dynamics.
  • Species interactions (competition, predation) also influence population dynamics, alongside temperature.
  • Understanding these combined effects is crucial for predicting climate change impacts on ecosystems.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how direct physiological temperature effects and indirect food web interactions shape climate change consequences.
  • To model the ecological impacts on populations and entire communities using a trait-based food-web model.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a trait-based food-web model to simulate ecological community responses.
  • Examined the interplay between temperature-driven physiological changes and altered species interactions.

Main Results:

  • Isolated communities showed population extinctions as environments shifted beyond thermal niches.
  • Higher trophic levels were more vulnerable; lower trophic levels had less impacted ecosystem function.
  • Open communities could be resilient to function loss via species invasions.
  • Individual population responses were complex and often uncorrelated with direct temperature impacts.
  • Extinction and invasion events dramatically altered food web topology, impacting even climate-adapted species.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change impacts on populations are largely unpredictable.
  • Species well-adapted to local climate may still face severe consequences due to altered food web dynamics.
  • Indirect ecological effects mediated by species interactions are critical for understanding climate change outcomes.