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Predicting phenological shifts in a changing climate.

Katherine Scranton1, Priyanga Amarasekare2

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Entomology

Background:

  • Phenological shifts, such as changes in the timing of biological events, are key indicators of climate warming.
  • While advanced emergence is common in high-latitude ectotherms, some species show delayed or unchanged emergence patterns.
  • Existing research presents conflicting observations regarding the impact of climate warming on ectotherm phenology.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a mechanistic theoretical framework reconciling disparate phenological shift observations in ectotherms.
  • To predict population-level phenological patterns based on temperature responses of life history traits.
  • To investigate how changes in mean temperature and seasonal fluctuations influence insect phenology across latitudes.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a mechanistic theoretical model for phenological shifts.
  • Parameterized the model using data on temperature responses of insect life history traits.
  • Applied the model to insect data from various latitudes to simulate population-level responses.

Main Results:

  • Warming-induced increases in mean environmental temperature advance peak abundance timing.
  • Warming-induced increases in the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations delay peak abundance timing.
  • High-latitude species may not experience longer activity periods due to supraoptimal summer temperatures.
  • Low-latitude species are more negatively impacted by increased mean temperatures, while high-latitude species are more affected by increased seasonal fluctuations.

Conclusions:

  • The developed framework successfully reconciles conflicting observations on climate warming's impact on ectotherm phenology.
  • Warming's effects on phenology are complex and depend on both the direction of temperature change (mean vs. fluctuation) and the species' native thermal niche.
  • Understanding these nuanced responses is critical for predicting the ecological consequences of climate change for ectotherm populations.