Vulnerability of Canadian aquatic ecosystems to nuclear accidents

Several cesium and strontium bioaccumulation models are used widely in national and international guidance for ecological and human health risk assessments for radiocesium (¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs) and radiostrontium (⁹⁰Sr), but have not been used to make predictions of radiological risk from nuclear accidents under variable environmental conditions on broad geographical scales. In this paper, we first present models for predicting the bioaccumulation of cesium and strontium by aquatic biota based on ambient concentrations of dissolved potassium and calcium, respectively, and then test these models using independent data from aquatic ecosystems at Canadian nuclear sites. Secondly, models yielding the best predictions across a wide range of input parameters were selected to estimate bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) for cesium and strontium in aquatic ecosystems across Canada, using trophic level of organisms and dissolved potassium for cesium and calcium concentrations for strontium as predictor variables, and presented as contour maps of radiological risk. The models show that risk from bioaccumulation of cesium and strontium can vary by several orders of magnitude depending on site-specific environmental conditions and trophic ecology. Overall, our results suggest that single-parameter approaches taken by regulatory standards may either over- or under-predict radiological risk at many locations, and are thus not readily suitable to inform siting decisions for new nuclear developments.