Fatal crashes involving large numbers of vehicles and weather

Adverse weather has been recognized as a significant threat to traffic safety. However, relationships between fatal crashes involving large numbers of vehicles and weather are rarely studied according to the low occurrence of crashes involving large numbers of vehicles.

By using all 1,513,792 fatal crashes in the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data, 1975-2014, we successfully described these relationships.

We found: (a) fatal crashes involving more than 35 vehicles are most likely to occur in snow or fog; (b) fatal crashes in rain are three times as likely to involve 10 or more vehicles as fatal crashes in good weather; (c) fatal crashes in snow [or fog] are 24 times [35 times] as likely to involve 10 or more vehicles as fatal crashes in good weather. If the example had used 20 vehicles, the risk ratios would be 6 for rain, 158 for snow, and 171 for fog.

To reduce the risk of involvement in fatal crashes with large numbers of vehicles, drivers should slow down more than they currently do under adverse weather conditions. Driver deaths per fatal crash increase slowly with increasing numbers of involved vehicles when it is snowing or raining, but more steeply when clear or foggy.

We conclude that in order to reduce risk of involvement in crashes involving large numbers of vehicles, drivers must reduce speed in fog, and in snow or rain, reduce speed by even more than they already do.