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Published on: August 2, 2011
Hypothetical route of the introduction of Schmallenberg virus into Ireland using two complementary analyses
Guy McGrath1, Simon J More1, Ronan O'Neill2
1Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
Abstract:
Ireland lost its official freedom from Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in October 2012. The route of introduction is uncertain, with long-distance displacement of infected Culicoides, biting midges, by suitable wind flows considered to be the most likely source. The authors investigated the potential introduction of SBV into Ireland through a Culicoides incursion event in the summer of 2012. They conducted SBV serology on archived bovine sera to identify the prospective dispersal window, then used atmospheric dispersion modelling during periods around this window to identify environmental conditions the authors considered suitable for atmospheric dispersal of Culicoides from potential infected source locations across Southern England. The authors believe that there was one plausible window over the summer of 2012, on August 10-11, based on suitable meteorological conditions. They conclude that a potential long-range transportation event of Culicoides appears to have occurred successfully only once during the 2012 vector competent season. If these incursion events remain at a low frequency, meteorological modelling has the potential to contribute cost-effectively to the alert and response systems for vectorborne diseases in the future.
Insights
Ireland
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Virology
- Epidemiology
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- Ireland lost its Schmallenberg virus (SBV)-free status in October 2012.
- The introduction route of SBV is uncertain, with long-distance wind-driven dispersal of infected Culicoides (biting midges) being the most probable cause.
- Understanding SBV introduction pathways is crucial for disease control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the potential introduction of SBV into Ireland via Culicoides incursion during summer 2012.
- To identify environmental conditions suitable for Culicoides dispersal.
- To assess the feasibility of using meteorological modeling for future vector-borne disease surveillance.
Main Methods:
- SBV serology was performed on archived bovine sera to determine the likely dispersal window.
- Atmospheric dispersion modeling was employed to identify suitable conditions for Culicoides dispersal from Southern England.
- Meteorological data was analyzed for the identified dispersal window.
Main Results:
- A single plausible window for Culicoides long-range transportation occurred on August 10-11, 2012, driven by suitable meteorological conditions.
- The study identified specific environmental conditions conducive to vector dispersal.
- The frequency of such incursions was estimated to be low in the 2012 season.
Conclusions:
- A potential long-range transportation event of Culicoides carrying SBV likely occurred once in the summer of 2012.
- Meteorological modeling can be a cost-effective tool for future vector-borne disease alert and response systems.
- Low-frequency incursion events highlight the need for robust surveillance and rapid response strategies.

