Hypothetical route of the introduction of Schmallenberg virus into Ireland using two complementary analyses

Guy McGrath1, Simon J More1, Ronan O'Neill2

  • 1Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.

The Veterinary Record
|December 9, 2017
PubMed

Insights

Ireland

Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Virology
  • Epidemiology
  • Atmospheric Science

Background:

  • Ireland lost its Schmallenberg virus (SBV)-free status in October 2012.
  • The introduction route of SBV is uncertain, with long-distance wind-driven dispersal of infected Culicoides (biting midges) being the most probable cause.
  • Understanding SBV introduction pathways is crucial for disease control.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the potential introduction of SBV into Ireland via Culicoides incursion during summer 2012.
  • To identify environmental conditions suitable for Culicoides dispersal.
  • To assess the feasibility of using meteorological modeling for future vector-borne disease surveillance.

Main Methods:

  • SBV serology was performed on archived bovine sera to determine the likely dispersal window.
  • Atmospheric dispersion modeling was employed to identify suitable conditions for Culicoides dispersal from Southern England.
  • Meteorological data was analyzed for the identified dispersal window.

Main Results:

  • A single plausible window for Culicoides long-range transportation occurred on August 10-11, 2012, driven by suitable meteorological conditions.
  • The study identified specific environmental conditions conducive to vector dispersal.
  • The frequency of such incursions was estimated to be low in the 2012 season.

Conclusions:

  • A potential long-range transportation event of Culicoides carrying SBV likely occurred once in the summer of 2012.
  • Meteorological modeling can be a cost-effective tool for future vector-borne disease alert and response systems.
  • Low-frequency incursion events highlight the need for robust surveillance and rapid response strategies.

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