Eradicating BVD, reviewing Irish programme data and model predictions to support prospective decision making

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Epidemiology
• Infectious Disease Control
• Animal Health Economics

Background:

• Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) is a significant infectious disease in global cattle populations.
• Persistent infection (PI) calves are the primary drivers of BVD spread.
• Two main strategies exist for PI animal identification: direct tissue tag testing and indirect serological screening.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the potential benefits and drawbacks of changing Ireland's national BVD eradication strategy from direct to indirect testing.
• To provide data-driven insights for stakeholders considering a strategy modification.

Main Methods:

• Review of data from Ireland's national BVD eradication programme (2013-2016).
• Utilisation of an expert system model for strategy performance predictions.
• Analysis of strategic, budgetary, and implementation impacts of a potential strategy change.

Main Results:

• Changing to indirect testing could result in a loss of crucial epidemiological data for monitoring eradication progress.
• Financial benefits of a strategy change would only accrue to approximately 25% of Irish herds, with minimal annual savings per herd.
• Enhanced compliance with current PI removal recommendations offers opportunities to accelerate BVD eradication.

Conclusions:

• A shift to indirect serological screening presents significant drawbacks for BVD eradication in Ireland.
• The current direct testing strategy, with improved compliance, remains the most effective approach for controlling and eradicating BVD.
• Further scientific evidence supports maintaining and optimizing the existing direct testing strategy for BVD control.