Comparison of real-world and certification emission rates for light duty gasoline vehicles

U.S. light duty vehicles are subject to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emission standards. Emission compliance is determined by certification testing of selected emissions from representative vehicles on standard driving cycles using chassis dynamometers. Test results are also used in many emission inventories. The dynamometer based emission rates are adjusted to provide the certification levels (CL), which must be lower than the standards for compliance. Although standard driving cycles are based on specific observations of real-world driving, they are not necessarily real-world representative. A systematic comparison of the real-world emission rates of U.S. light duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) versus CL, and emission standards has not been previously reported. The purpose of this work is to compare regulatory limits (both CLs and emission standards) and the real-world emissions of LDGVs. The sensitivity of the comparisons to cold start emission was assessed. Portable Emission Measurement Systems (PEMS) were used to measure hot stabilized exhaust emissions of 122 LDGVs on a specified 110 mile test route. Cold start emissions were measured with PEMS for a selected vehicle sample of 32 vehicles. Emissions were measured for carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x). For each vehicle, a Vehicle Specific Power (VSP) modal emission rate model was developed. The VSP modal rates were weighted by the standard driving cycles and real-world driving cycles to estimate the respective cycle average emission rates (CAERs). Measured vehicles were matched with certification test vehicles for comparison. For systematic trends in comparison, vehicles were classified into four groups based on the Tier 1 and Tier 2 emission regulation, and the vehicle type such as passenger car and passenger truck. Depending on the cycle-pollutant and the vehicle groups, hot stabilized CAERs are on average either statistically significantly higher than or significantly not different from the CLs, with the exception of CO on the US06 cycle, for which real-world rates are lower than CLs. Compared to the emission standards, hot stabilized CAERs are on average significantly lower. However, comparisons of CAERs and standards are sensitive to cold start emissions. For some combinations of pollutants and vehicle groups, cold start inclusive CAERs are higher than the corresponding CLs and as high as the standards. The CLs, which are based on standard driving cycles, tend to underestimate real-world emission rates. Therefore, emission inventory estimates using certification test results are potentially underestimated.