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The full moon and motorcycle related mortality: population based double control study
Donald A Redelmeier1, Eldar Shafir2
1Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Canada; Division of General Internal Medicine, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON M4N 3M5, Canada dar@ices.on.ca.
Full moon nights are linked to more motorcycle fatalities. This study found a 5% increased risk, suggesting caution for riders during these times.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Traffic Safety
Background:
- Motorcycle fatalities represent a significant public health concern.
- Previous research has explored various factors influencing motorcycle crash risk.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the potential association between full moon occurrences and motorcycle-related fatalities.
- To quantify the risk of fatal motorcycle crashes during full moon periods.
Main Methods:
- A population-based, individual-level, double-control, cross-sectional analysis was conducted.
- Data from 13,029 motorcycle fatalities in the United States between 1975 and 2014 were analyzed.
- Nighttime crashes (4 pm to 8 am) were compared between full moon and non-full moon periods.
Main Results:
- A statistically significant increase in motorcycle fatalities was observed during full moon nights (relative risk 1.05, odds ratio 1.26).
- An absolute increase of 226 additional deaths was estimated over the 40-year study interval.
- The association was consistent across various motorcyclist types, vehicle types, and crash scenarios, and observed internationally.
Conclusions:
- The full moon is associated with an elevated risk of fatal motorcycle crashes.
- While confounders cannot be entirely excluded, this finding suggests a potential lunar influence on rider behavior or crash occurrence.
- Increased rider awareness during full moon periods may enhance safety and mitigate risks associated with subtle environmental factors.
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