Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models

Area of Science:

• Earth System Science
• Climate Modeling
• Land Management

Background:

• Earth system models (ESMs) are evolving from general climate projections to addressing mitigation and adaptation.
• Current ESMs show an increasing capacity to incorporate land-cover change and, partially, land management changes.
• A comprehensive representation of land management in ESMs is anticipated for the future.

Purpose of the Study:

• To survey the current state of land management integration in ESMs.
• To evaluate ten key land management practices for their Earth system importance, implementability in ESMs, and data availability.
• To guide prioritization for incorporating land management into ESMs.

Main Methods:

• Survey of ESM modeling groups regarding land management integration.
• Evaluation of ten land management practices based on Earth system impact, ESM implementability, and data requirements.
• Identification of "low-hanging fruit" and research needs for land management inclusion.

Main Results:

• Basic implementations of crop harvest, forestry harvest, and fertilization are identified as "low-hanging fruits" for ESMs.
• Data availability is a major limitation for modeling extensive practices like grazing and mowing harvest.
• Inadequate process understanding hinders the assessment of practices like crop species selection and tillage.

Conclusions:

• A phased approach to incorporating land management into ESMs is feasible, starting with simpler practices.
• Significant research and data development are required for comprehensive land management representation.
• Enhanced collaboration between modeling, Earth observation, and land system science communities is essential.