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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Feb 17, 2026

Establishing Mouse Models for Zika Virus-induced Neurological Disorders Using Intracerebral Injection Strategies: Embryonic, Neonatal, and Adult
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Can Zika Account for the Missing Babies?

Flávio Codeço Coelho1, Margaret Armstrong1, Valeria Saraceni2

  • 1Center for Mathematical Epidemiology, School of Applied Mathematics, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Brasília, Brazil.

Frontiers in Public Health
|December 15, 2017
PubMed
Summary

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in Rio de Janeiro correlated with a 15% decrease in live births. This drop, observed in late 2016, suggests ZIKV may cause early miscarriages, impacting birth rates.

Keywords:
Zikadiseasesepidemiologyinfantlive birth ratenewbornsexually transmitted diseases

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Virology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Zika virus (ZIKV) caused a major epidemic in Brazil in 2015-2016.
  • Rio de Janeiro experienced a high burden of ZIKV cases.
  • Neurological damage in fetuses exposed to ZIKV is a known severe outcome.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the potential impact of ZIKV on miscarriage rates.
  • To determine if ZIKV infection led to a reduction in live births in Rio de Janeiro.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of live birth data in Rio de Janeiro from 2015 and 2016.
  • Correlation analysis between ZIKV case numbers and live birth rates, accounting for a 40-week gestation period.

Main Results:

  • A 15% decline in live births was observed between September and December 2016 compared to the previous year.
  • This significant drop, starting from epidemiological week 33, strongly correlated with ZIKV case numbers approximately 40 weeks prior.

Conclusions:

  • Zika virus (ZIKV) is postulated as the direct cause of the observed reduction in live births.
  • Further research is needed to rule out confounding factors like fear of microcephaly or economic conditions.