Using Controlled Substance Receipt Patterns to Predict Prescription Overdose Death

This study evaluates complete state data from controlled substance prescribing trends in the prescription monitoring program (PMP) database and their association with the risk of prescription drug overdose death.

Maine PMP records of individuals who died of prescription overdose deaths between 2006 and 2010 were selected (n = 690). For each subject, an age, gender, and residence matched cohort of PMP users in a 50: 1 ratio was identified (n = 34,500). Key Messages: Prescription opioids contributed to 480 of 690 prescription deaths, many co-ingestions were noted, and OR for overdose death increased with milligram of morphine equivalent (MME)/day >100. The majority who were prescribed MME >100 per day received a prescription within 90 days of overdose matching the toxicology cause of death.

Medication profiles available through state PMP can identify dosing of prescriptions associated with drug overdose death.