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Global road fatality trends' estimations based on country-wise micro level data
1Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Bahrain, Bahrain.
Accident; Analysis and Prevention
|December 19, 2017
Summary
Global road crash deaths are analyzed using adjusted data, revealing a slowing trend and contradicting WHO/World Bank forecasts. Projections show significant regional disparities, with Africa and South America facing increases while other continents may see decreases.
Area of Science:
- Road safety research
- Global health statistics
- Epidemiological modeling
Background:
- Analysis of global road crash deaths over 35 years using micro-level data from 215 countries.
- Data adjusted for underreporting, varying death definitions, and missing information.
Observation:
- Global road crash deaths showed a consistent increase from 1980 to 2008, followed by a slowdown.
- Adjusted 2014 deaths ranged from 792,000 to 905,000, potentially 40% lower than WHO estimates.
- Road crash fatality trends varied significantly by continent, with Asia mirroring global trends, Africa and South America showing increases, and Europe/Oceania showing decreases.
Findings:
- Developed models forecast a plateauing transition stage for global road deaths before a potential decline, contradicting WHO and World Bank projections.
- Significant discrepancies exist between study findings and WHO/World Bank forecasts for 2020 and 2030 road deaths.
- By 2025, models predict decreases in North/Central America, Oceania, and Asia, but substantial increases in Africa and South America.
Implications:
- The study highlights inconsistencies in road death data across different WHO sectors.
- Urgent need for careful interpretation of road safety data and extensive research due to poor safety records in several regions.
- Findings necessitate revised global road safety strategies and interventions, particularly for high-risk continents.
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