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Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring
Albert Ossó1, Rowan Sutton2, Len Shaffrey2
1Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, United Kingdom a.osso@reading.ac.uk.
Summary
Predicting European summer rainfall months ahead is possible. North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in spring can forecast the summer East Atlantic pattern, improving rainfall predictions for the British Isles.
Area of Science:
- Meteorology
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
Background:
- Seasonal weather forecasts are valuable but currently lack skill, especially for European summer rainfall.
- The reasons for low forecast skill are unclear, possibly due to inherent unpredictability or system limitations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the predictability of European summer weather patterns.
- To identify factors influencing summer rainfall in the British Isles and surrounding regions.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical atmosphere and ocean observational data.
- Statistical correlation between North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation patterns.
- Cross-validation of predictive models.
Main Results:
- The summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern is predictable from spring sea-surface temperatures.
- North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March-April correlate with the SEA pattern in July-August (skill > 0.6).
- The SEA pattern significantly influences British Isles rainfall, which is predictable with a skill of 0.56.
Conclusions:
- Spring sea-surface temperatures offer a basis for skillful empirical forecasts of summer rainfall.
- Current dynamical forecast systems may have significant room for improvement.
- Findings have direct applications for forecasting summer rainfall in the UK, Ireland, and northern France.
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