Dynamic Prognostic Score to Predict Kidney Allograft Survival in Patients with Antibody-Mediated Rejection

No tool is available for the early assessment of response to antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) therapies in kidney allograft recipients. This study was designed to define a dynamic composite prognostic ABMR score to predict kidney allograft survival, integrating the disease characteristics at diagnosis and the response to treatment. Among 1978 kidney recipients who underwent transplant between 2008 and 2014, we included 278 patients diagnosed with active ABMR and receiving standard treatment, including plasma exchange, intravenous Ig, and rituximab. Patients were prospectively assessed at diagnosis and after treatment for clinical data, histologic characteristics (allograft biopsy specimen), and donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies (DSA). The dynamic ABMR prediction model included GFR (P<0.001) and presence of interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (P=0.003) at diagnosis and changes in GFR (P<0.001), peritubular capillaritis Banff score (P=0.002), and DSA mean fluorescence intensity (P<0.001) after treatment. Overall, this model showed good calibration and discrimination (C-statistic=0.84). The ABMR prognostic score derived from the prediction model identified three risk strata with 6-year kidney allograft survival rates of 6.0% (high-risk group, n=40), 44.9% (intermediate-risk group, n=36), and 84.4% (low-risk group, n=202), and it provided greater net clinical benefit to patients than did considering them all to have the same level of risk of allograft loss. The performance of the ABMR prognostic score was validated in an independent cohort of 202 kidney recipients with ABMR (C-statistic=0.79). The ABMR prognostic score could be used to inform therapeutic decisions in clinical practice and for the design of clinical trials.