Shear-wave anisotropy reveals pore fluid pressure-induced seismicity in the U.S. midcontinent

Seismicity in the U.S. midcontinent has increased by orders of magnitude over the past decade. Spatiotemporal correlations of seismicity to wastewater injection operations have suggested that injection-related pore fluid pressure increases are inducing the earthquakes. We present direct evidence linking earthquake occurrence to pore pressure increase in the U.S. midcontinent through time-lapse shear-wave (S-wave) anisotropy analysis. Since the onset of the observation period in 2010, the orientation of the fast S-wave polarization has flipped from inline with the maximum horizontal stress to inline with the minimum horizontal stress, a change known to be associated with critical pore pressure buildup. The time delay between fast and slow S-wave arrivals exhibits increased variance through time, which is common in critical pore fluid settings. Near-basement borehole fluid pressure measurements indicate pore pressure increase in the region over the earthquake monitoring period.