Validation of Newly Proposed Time to Transarterial Chemoembolization Progression in Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular...

Determination of failure of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for treatment of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B (BCLC-B) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has become important because of the development of tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) treatment. We evaluated the usefulness and efficacy of the newly proposed time to TACE progression (TTTP).

From 2006 to 2016, 192 BCLC-B HCC patients [median age 72 years, male/female ratio = 149/43, Child-Pugh score 5/6/7 = 106/56/30, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 1/2 = 64/128, Kinki criteria B1/B2 = 64/128] were enrolled. TTTP was defined based on a previous report and first imaging performed 3 months after initial TACE had been used to obtain baseline images. The patients were divided into three groups according to TTTP (<5, 5-10, and ≥10 months; group I, II, and III, respectively). We evaluated the relationship between TTTP and overall survival (OS) as well as the prognostic factors for death.

The median number of TACE procedures was 4 (interquartile range 3-7). There was a moderate correlation between TTTP and OS (r = 0.527, 95% CI 0.416-0.622, p < 0.001). The median survival for group I (n = 78), II (n = 49), and III (n = 65) was 24.6, 34.7, and 49.5 months, respectively (group I vs. group II, p = 0.023; group I vs. group III, p < 0.001; group II vs. group III, p = 0.037; Holm's method). ALBI grade 2 (HR 1.548, 95% CI 1.004-2.388, p = 0.048), alpha-fetoprotein (>100 ng/mL) (HR 1.540, 95% CI 1.035-2.291, p = 0.033), and TTTP (<5 months) (HR 2.157, 95% CI 1.447-3.215, p < 0.001) were significant prognostic factors for death in multivariate Cox hazard analysis.

In patients with reduced TTTP, especially <5 months, it might be difficult to improve prognosis with a repeated TACE procedures. In such cases, reconsideration of the therapeutic strategy might be needed when possible.