[A new prognostic score system of hepatocellular carcinoma following hepatectomy]

Objective: To establish a new scoring system based on the clinicopathological features of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to predict prognosis of patients who received hepatectomy. Methods: A total of 845 HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy from 1999 to 2010 at Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences were retrospectively analyzed. 21 common clinical factors were selected in this analysis. Among these factors, the cut-off values of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and intraoperative blood loss were evaluated by using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model were used to evaluate the independent risk factors associated with the prognosis of HCC patients after hepatectomy. HCC postoperatively prognostic scoring system was established according to the minimum weighted method of these independent risk factors, and divided the patients into 3 risk groups, including low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk group. The relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared among these groups. Results: The univariate analysis showed that clinical symptoms, preoperative α-fetoprotein (AFP) level, serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) level, tumor size, tumor number, abdominal lymph node metastasis, macrovascular invasion or tumor thrombus, extrahepatic invasion or serosa perforation, the severity of hepatic cirrhosis, intraoperative blood loss, the liver operative method, pathological tumor thrombus, intraoperative blood transfusion, perioperative blood transfusion were significantly associated with median RFS of these HCC patients (P<0.05). Alternatively, clinical symptoms, preoperative AFP level, serum ALP level, tumor size, tumor number, abdominal lymph node metastasis, macrovascular invasion or tumor thrombus, extrahepatic invasion or serosa perforation, the severity of hepatic cirrhosis, intraoperative blood loss, the liver operative method, pathological lymphocyte invasion, pathological tumor thrombus, intraoperative blood transfusion, perioperative blood transfusion were significantly associated with the median OS of these HCC patients (P<0.05). The multivariate analysis showed that AFP ≥20 ng/ml, clinical symptoms, tumor diameter ≥5 cm, multiple tumors, macrovascular invasion or tumor thrombus, extrahepatic invasion or serosa perforation, moderate and severe liver cirrhosis, non- anatomic resection were the independent risk factors of RFS and OS (P<0.05). The independent risk factor of RFS was intraoperative bleeding loss ≥325 ml (P<0.05); The independent risk factors of OS were abdominal lymph node metastasis and pathological tumors thrombus (P<0.05). The respective weight of 11 independent factors was used to establish the scoring system (scores range from 0 to 26). In the score system, 0 to 5 points were defined as the low-risk group (286 cases), 6 to 12 points were determined as the intermediate-risk group (503 cases), more than 13 points were classified as the high-risk group (56 cases). The median RFS of the low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk group were 80, 27 and 6 months, respectively. The differences were statistically significant (P<0.001). The median OS of the three groups were 134, 51 and 15 months, respectively, and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.001). Conclusion: This new score system provides effective prediction of postoperative prognosis for HCC patients.