The logic of counterfactual analysis in case-study explanation

Area of Science:

• Social Sciences
• Philosophy of Science

Background:

• Case-study research often relies on counterfactual reasoning for causal explanation.
• Existing methods for counterfactual analysis lack a rigorous theoretical foundation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a set-theoretic and possible worlds framework for counterfactual analysis in case studies.
• To evaluate the utility of different types of counterfactuals for hypothesis assessment.
• To refine the understanding of the 'minimal-rewrite' rule and its implications for necessary conditions.

Main Methods:

• Application of set theory and possible worlds semantics.
• Analysis of four types of counterfactuals: necessary condition, SUIN condition, sufficient condition, and INUS condition.
• Development of tools for specifying the level of generality in counterfactuals.

Main Results:

• Necessary condition and SUIN condition counterfactuals are deemed most effective for hypothesis assessment in case studies.
• The 'minimal-rewrite' rule is linked to set-theoretic insights on the importance of necessary conditions.
• A tension is identified between formulating empirically important versus empirically plausible counterfactuals.

Conclusions:

• The proposed framework enhances rigorous counterfactual analysis in case-study explanation.
• The findings provide a theoretical basis for selecting and constructing useful counterfactuals.
• The framework facilitates linking counterfactual analysis to causal sequences and projections.