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Published on: February 2, 2017
Predicting childhood overweight and obesity using maternal and early life risk factors: a systematic review
N Ziauddeen1, P J Roderick1, N S Macklon2
1Academic Unit of Primary Care and Population Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Insights
Identifying childhood obesity risk is crucial. This review found many prediction models exist, but most lack external validation and standardized reporting, hindering their use in preventing childhood obesity.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Pediatrics
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Childhood obesity presents a significant public health concern.
- Early identification of at-risk children is a priority for intervention.
- Systematic review of prediction models for childhood overweight/obesity is needed.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically review existing prediction models for childhood overweight/obesity.
- To critically assess the methodology used in developing and validating these models.
- To evaluate the reporting standards of childhood obesity prediction models.
Main Methods:
- Systematic literature search of Medline and Embase databases.
- Inclusion of studies developing or validating prediction models for ages 1-13 years.
- Data extraction using the Cochrane CHARMS checklist for Prognosis Methods.
Main Results:
- Ten studies were identified, developing or validating prediction models.
- Six of eight models used automated variable selection; two employed multiple imputation for missing data.
- Common predictors included maternal body mass index, birthweight, and gender, though only seven were used across multiple models.
Conclusions:
- Multiple prediction models for childhood obesity are available.
- Most models lack external validation and comparative analysis for improved performance.
- Methodological limitations and non-standard reporting impede the practical implementation of these models for obesity prevention.
Background:
Childhood obesity is a serious public health challenge, and identification of high-risk populations with early intervention to prevent its development is a priority. We aimed to systematically review prediction models for childhood overweight/obesity and critically assess the methodology of their development, validation and reporting.
Methods:
Medline and Embase were searched systematically for studies describing the development and/or validation of a prediction model/score for overweight and obesity between 1 to 13 years of age. Data were extracted using the Cochrane CHARMS checklist for Prognosis Methods.
Results:
Ten studies were identified that developed (one), developed and validated (seven) or externally validated an existing (two) prediction model. Six out of eight models were developed using automated variable selection methods. Two studies used multiple imputation to handle missing data. From all studies, 30,475 participants were included. Of 25 predictors, only seven were included in more than one model with maternal body mass index, birthweight and gender the most common.
Conclusion:
Several prediction models exist, but most have not been externally validated or compared with existing models to improve predictive performance. Methodological limitations in model development and validation combined with non-standard reporting restrict the implementation of existing models for the prevention of childhood obesity.
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