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Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations.

Anouch Missirian1, Wolfram Schlenker1,2,3

  • 1School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|December 23, 2017
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change impacts human migration, with weather variations linked to increased asylum applications in the EU. Future warming could significantly accelerate this trend, especially under higher emissions scenarios.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Change Research
  • Sociology

Background:

  • International climate change negotiations and Mediterranean migration highlight the need to understand climate change impacts on human mobility.
  • Previous research has not fully quantified the relationship between weather variations and cross-border asylum applications.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the quantitative relationship between weather variations and asylum applications to the European Union (EU) from 2000 to 2014.
  • To project future asylum applications based on climate change scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of asylum applications in the EU (averaging 351,000 per year) correlated with weather data from 103 source countries (2000-2014).
  • Utilized NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) with 21 climate models for future projections.
  • Employed Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 for future climate modeling.

Main Results:

  • Temperatures deviating from the optimal ~20°C nonlinearly increased asylum applications.
  • A projected 28% increase (98,000 applications/year) by 2100 under RCP 4.5.
  • A substantial 188% increase (660,000 applications/year) by 2100 under RCP 8.5.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change, specifically temperature anomalies, is a significant driver of asylum applications to the EU.
  • Future warming is predicted to cause a considerable acceleration in asylum applications, necessitating proactive policy responses.
  • The findings underscore the urgent need for global climate action to mitigate both climate change and its associated migratory pressures.