Prediction of survival during induction therapy in patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloblastic leukemia

Among 569 patients with newly diagnosed AML, 16% died in the 4 weeks following initiation of remission induction therapy. Eight pretreatment characteristics were found to be independently associated with 4-week survival: performance status, bilirubin, age, neutrophil count, fibrinogen, albumin, hemoglobin, and creatinine. A model incorporating these characteristics prospectively stratified a separate group of 198 patients into two comparably sized groups differing substantially in both 4-week survival rates (71% (95% confidence limits, 61-80%) vs. 91% (95% confidence limits, 83-96%] and in survival rates throughout remission induction. Characteristics associated with failure to survive 4 weeks were unassociated with resistance to therapy. This suggests that patients who fail to survive induction are qualitatively different than patients who survive induction but exhibit resistance to treatment. Different therapeutic strategies might be appropriate in the two groups. The model presented here can be used to identify patients at increased risk of death during remission induction.