Harnessing landscape heterogeneity for managing future disturbance risks in forest ecosystems

Area of Science:

• Forestry science
• Climate change adaptation
• Ecosystem services management

Background:

• Fossil fuel phase-out necessitates increased reliance on renewable forest resources.
• Climate change alters disturbance regimes, threatening continuous ecosystem service provision.
• Forest management faces challenges in mitigating risks from changing climate and disturbances.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate risk management strategies for timber production under climate change.
• To analyze the impact of changing climate and disturbance regimes on forest landscapes.
• To inform forest management decisions by considering spatial patterns of risk and mitigation effectiveness.

Main Methods:

• Simulation modeling of a forest landscape in the Austrian Alps.
• Assessment of timber production under various climate and disturbance scenarios.
• Analysis of spatial risk distribution and the effectiveness of silvicultural interventions.

Main Results:

• Disturbances (wind, bark beetles) are projected to increase by 39.5% over 200 years under historical management.
• Mixed forests, climate-adapted species, and increased management intensity reduce disturbance risk.
• Spatial analysis revealed uneven risk distribution and variable effectiveness of mitigation measures across forest stands.

Conclusions:

• Targeted risk mitigation in high-leverage stands (24.4%) is crucial.
• Embracing natural disturbances in low-risk, low-response stands (16.9%) can benefit biodiversity.
• Harnessing landscape heterogeneity is key for managing both positive and negative impacts of changing disturbance regimes.