Risk Modeling to Optimize Patient Selection for Management of the Descending Thoracic Aortic Aneurysm

A single-institutional study comparing early and long-term outcomes of thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) and open surgical repair (OSR) was performed to determine the appropriate treatment option for descending thoracic aortic aneurysm (DTAA).

Between 2005 and 2014, 438 DTAA patients were treated (TEVAR, 88; OSR, 350). Acute dissection and traumatic injury were excluded. Perioperative and follow-up data were reviewed. Stratified analyses were conducted to identify patients most likely to benefit from TEVAR. A propensity score for TEVAR was developed by logistic regression, and predictive logistic and Cox regression models for death were adjusted for propensity score.

TEVAR patients were frequently older women with emergent status, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or coronary artery disease. TEVAR had similar immediate (0% vs 1%; p = 0.588) and delayed (5% vs 6%, p = 1.000) motor deficits and early mortality (6% vs 12%, p = 0.121) but lower dialysis (3% vs 18%, p < 0.001), respiratory failure (10% vs 34%, p < 0.001), and intensive care unit stay (2.0 vs 5.0 days, p < 0.001). Early mortality after TEVAR was lower in septuagenarians (3% vs 16%, p < 0.02), glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min (8% vs 32%, p < 0.049), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (6% vs 21%, p < 0.02), defined as target population that had fourfold mortality reduction (p < 0.006) attributable to TEVAR. Propensity-adjusted predictors of early mortality predictors included OSR (odds ratio [OR], 4.3; p < 0.024), target population (OR, 7.7; p < 0.001), diabetes (OR, 3; p < 0.009), peripheral vascular disease (OR, 4.7; p < 0.001), and emergent status (OR, 4.6; p < 0.001). Propensity-adjusted determinants of survival were age, glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min, peripheral vascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and emergent status.

In older patients with significant comorbidities, TEVAR demonstrated superior results compared with OSR and may be preferable in this target population.