[Establishment of A Clinical Prediction Model of Prolonged Air Leak 
after Anatomic Lung Resection]

Prolonged air leak (PAL) after anatomic lung resection is a common and challenging complication in thoracic surgery. No available clinical prediction model of PAL has been established in China. The aim of this study was to construct a model to identify patients at increased risk of PAL by using preoperative factors exclusively.

We retrospectively reviewed clinical data and PAL occurrence of patients after anatomic lung resection, in department of thoracic surgery, Anhui Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Anhui Medical University, from January 2016 to October 2016. 359 patients were in group A, clinical data including age, body mass index (BMI), gender, smoking history, surgical methods, pulmonary function index, pleural adhesion, pathologic diagnosis, side and site of resected lung were analyzed. By using univariate and multivariate analysis, we found the independent predictors of PAL after anatomic lung resection and subsequently established a clinical prediction model. Then, another 112 patients (group B), who underwent anatomic lung resection in different time by different team, were chosen to verify the accuracy of the prediction model. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed using the prediction model.

Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to identify six clinical characteristics [BMI, gender, smoking history, forced expiratory volume in one second to forced vital capacity ratio (FEV1%), pleural adhesion, site of resection] as independent predictors of PAL after anatomic lung resection. The area under the ROC curve for our model was 0.886 (95%CI: 0.835-0.937). The best predictive P value was 0.299 with sensitivity of 78.5% and specificity of 93.2%.

Our prediction model could accurately identify occurrence risk of PAL in patients after anatomic lung resection, which might allow for more effective use of intraoperative prophylactic strategies.
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