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Modelling the Transmission Dynamics and Control of Mumps in Mainland China

Yong Li1,2, Xianning Liu3, Lianwen Wang4

  • 1Key Laboratory of Eco-Environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), School of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China. yongli@yangtzeu.edu.cn.

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
|December 27, 2017
PubMed

Insights

Mumps outbreaks are increasing in China, driven by young adults. Increasing Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) vaccine coverage is crucial for control.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Mumps, a common childhood viral illness, has seen a resurgence in China since 2005.
  • Over 300,000 young individuals are infected annually, with 18.02% seeking medical attention.
  • Insufficient vaccine coverage contributes to the rising incidence of mumps.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze long-term mumps surveillance data in China.
  • To model the dynamics of mumps transmission using a susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-severely infectious-mildly infectious-recovered (SVEILR) model.
  • To identify key drivers of mumps epidemics and evaluate control strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized long-term mumps surveillance data from China.
  • Employed an SVEILR dynamic transmission model with optimized parameters.
  • Conducted sensitivity analysis on the basic reproduction number and endemic equilibrium.

Main Results:

  • The reproduction number for mumps in China was determined to be 4.28.
  • Young adults with frequent social contact and mild infections were identified as major drivers of mumps epidemics.
  • Analysis indicated that current vaccine coverage in China is insufficient.

Conclusions:

  • Increased vaccine coverage is essential for controlling mumps outbreaks in China.
  • Making two doses of the Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) vaccine freely available is recommended.
  • Targeting young adults and improving vaccination strategies are key to reducing mumps incidence.
Keywords:
SVEILR mumps modelbasic reproductive numberglobal stabilitysensitivity analysisvertical transmission

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