Expected satiation alone does not predict actual intake of desserts

The degree to which consumers expect foods to satisfy hunger, referred to as expected satiation, has been reported to predict food intake. Yet this relationship has not been established precisely, at a quantitative level. We sought to explore this relationship in detail by determining whether expected satiation predicts the actual intake of semi-solid desserts. Two separate experiments were performed: the first used variations of a given food (eight apple purées), while the second involved a panel of different foods within a given category (eight desserts). Both experiments studied the consumption of two products assigned to volunteers based on their individual liking and expected satiation ratings, given ad libitum at the end of a standardised meal. A linear model was used to find predictors of food intake and included expected satiation scores, palatability scores, BMI, age, sex, TFEQ-R, TFEQ-D, water consumption during the meal, reported frequency of eating desserts, and reported frequency of consuming tested products as explanatory variables. Expected satiation was a significant predictor of actual food intake in both experiments (apple purée: F(1,97) = 18.60, P < .001; desserts: F(1,106) = 9.05, P < .01), along with other parameters such as product palatability and the volunteers' age, sex and food restriction (variation explained by the model/expected satiation in the experiments: 57%/23% and 36%/17%, respectively). However, we found a significant gap between expected and actual consumption of desserts, on group and on individual level. Our results confirm the importance of expected satiation as a predictor of subsequent food intake, but highlight the need to study individual consumption behaviour and preferences in order to fully understand the role of expected satiation.