Climate warming and land-use changes drive broad-scale floristic changes in Southern Sweden

Area of Science:

• Ecology and Environmental Science
• Plant Ecology
• Biodiversity Research

Background:

• Global biodiversity is impacted by 20th-century land-use changes, pollution, and climate warming.
• Environmental drivers of these biodiversity changes are often poorly understood.
• Understanding these drivers is crucial for conservation and ecological management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify and rank the key drivers of broad-scale floristic changes in Northern Europe.
• To analyze the relationship between species' performance and various environmental drivers.
• To assess the influence of specific traits on species' responses to environmental change.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of two vascular plant surveys from 200 randomly selected 2.5 × 2.5 km grid-squares in Scania, Sweden (1989–2006 and 2008–2015).
• Relating changes in species frequency (performance) to a comprehensive set of species-specific plant traits.
• Traits represented plausible drivers including climate change, land-use change, drainage, acidification, nitrogen deposition, eutrophication, pollinator decline, and CO2 levels.

Main Results:

• Climate warming and land-use changes were identified as the dominant drivers of recent flora changes.
• Northern distribution limit was the most influential trait, explaining 30%-60% of variance in models.
• Driver importance varied by habitat: grasslands affected by reduced grazing/mowing, ruderal habitats by agricultural intensification.

Conclusions:

• Climate warming is the most significant driver of current floristic changes in the studied region.
• Land-use changes, particularly cessation of grazing and agricultural intensification, also play critical roles.
• Specific drivers impact different habitats uniquely, necessitating tailored conservation strategies.