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Hit Dexter: A Machine-Learning Model for the Prediction of Frequent Hitters
Conrad Stork1, Johannes Wagner1, Nils-Ole Friedrich1
1Center for Bioinformatics, Universität Hamburg, Bundesstraße 43, 20146, Hamburg, Germany.
Abstract:
False-positive assay readouts caused by badly behaving compounds-frequent hitters, pan-assay interference compounds (PAINS), aggregators, and others-continue to pose a major challenge to experimental screening. There are only a few in silico methods that allow the prediction of such problematic compounds. We report the development of Hit Dexter, two extremely randomized trees classifiers for the prediction of compounds likely to trigger positive assay readouts either by true promiscuity or by assay interference. The models were trained on a well-prepared dataset extracted from the PubChem Bioassay database, consisting of approximately 311 000 compounds tested for activity on at least 50 proteins. Hit Dexter reached MCC and AUC values of up to 0.67 and 0.96 on an independent test set, respectively. The models are expected to be of high value, in particular to medicinal chemists and biochemists who can use Hit Dexter to identify compounds for which extra caution should be exercised with positive assay readouts. Hit Dexter is available as a free web service at http://hitdexter.zbh. uni-hamburg.de.
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Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.