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Combining Behavioral Endocrinology and Experimental Economics: Testosterone and Social Decision Making

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Synchronization of world economic activity.

Andreas Groth¹, Michael Ghil¹

¹Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA.

Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)

|January 1, 2018

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

This study reveals a common global business cycle using multivariate singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA). It identifies shared economic fluctuations and major events influencing worldwide economic activity.

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Area of Science:

Economics
Econometrics
Complex Systems

Background:

Business cycle fluctuations exhibit complex dynamics.
Understanding global economic synchronization is crucial for policy.
Previous analyses lacked methods to identify shared oscillatory modes across diverse economies.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate common dynamical properties of business cycle fluctuations globally.
To identify shared oscillatory modes and synchronization patterns across countries.
To detect structural changes in synchronization and their impact on the world economy.

Main Methods:

Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA) to identify oscillatory modes.
Analysis of phase- and frequency-locked oscillators to detect shared modes.
An extended M-SSA approach to analyze structural changes in synchronization clusters.

Main Results:

Identification of a common mode of business cycle activity across over 100 countries.
Evidence supporting the existence of a world business cycle.
Detection of several major postwar events that significantly impacted global economic activity.

Conclusions:

A unified world business cycle exists, characterized by shared dynamical properties.
The extended M-SSA methodology effectively reveals structural changes in economic synchronization.
Global economic activity is influenced by both common cyclical patterns and distinct major events.