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Area of Science:

  • Oceanography
  • Biogeochemistry
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Accurate forecasting of ocean chlorophyll is crucial for understanding marine ecosystems and predicting the impacts of climate events like El Niño.
  • The Equatorial Pacific is a key region for global ocean productivity and climate regulation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the skill of a global ocean biogeochemical model in forecasting chlorophyll concentrations in the Equatorial Pacific.
  • To evaluate the model's ability to predict the onset of the 2015 El Niño event and its impact on chlorophyll levels.
  • To identify uncertainties and areas for improvement in the biogeochemical forecasting system.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a global ocean biogeochemical model coupled with physical oceanic and atmospheric forecasts from NASA.
  • Conducted retrospective 9-month hindcasts for chlorophyll concentration from 2012-2015.
  • Compared monthly forecasted chlorophyll data with satellite observations from Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS).

Main Results:

  • The forecast successfully reproduced the phasing of chlorophyll variability, including the onset of the 2015-2016 El Niño.
  • Significant anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) were found for 1, 8, and 9-month lead times (R=0.33-0.42, p<0.05).
  • Root mean square error (RMSE) increased with lead time, indicating reduced accuracy in predicting chlorophyll amplitude, with 3-month lead forecasts being closest to observations.

Conclusions:

  • The study demonstrates the potential of the biogeochemical forecasting system for predicting chlorophyll concentrations in the Equatorial Pacific.
  • Forecast accuracy, particularly for amplitude, diminishes with longer lead times, highlighting areas for system improvement.
  • The system provides a foundation for future applications, such as assessing El Niño's effects on fisheries and ocean resources.