DNA polymorphisms predict time to progression from uncomplicated to complicated Crohn's disease

Most patients with Crohn's disease (CD) are diagnosed with the uncomplicated inflammatory form of the disease (Montreal stage B1). However, the majority of them will progress to complicated stricturing (B2) and penetrating (B3) CD during their lifetimes. The aim of our study was to identify the genetic factors associated with time to progression from uncomplicated to complicated CD.

Patients with an inflammatory phenotype at diagnosis were followed up for 10 years. Genotyping was carried out using Illumina ImmunoChip. After quality control, association analyses, Bonferroni's adjustments, linear and Cox's regression, and Kaplan-Meier analysis were carried out for 111 patients and Manhattan plots were constructed.

Ten years after diagnosis, 39.1% of the patients still had the inflammatory form and 60.9% progressed to complicated disease, with an average time to progression of 5.91 years. Ileal and ileocolonic locations were associated with the complicated CD (P=1.08E-03). We found that patients with the AA genotype at single-nucleotide polymorphism rs16857259 near the gene CACNA1E progressed to the complicated form later (8.80 years) compared with patients with the AC (5.11 years) or CC (2.00 years) genotypes (P=3.82E-07). In addition, nine single-nucleotide polymorphisms (near the genes RASGRP1, SULF2, XPO1, ZBTB44, HLA DOA/BRD2, HLA DRB1/HLA DQA1, PPARA, PUDP, and KIAA1614) showed a suggestive association with disease progression (P<10). Multivariate Cox's regression analysis on the basis of clinical and genetic data confirmed the association of the selected model with disease progression (P=5.73E-16).

Our study confirmed the association between the locus on chromosome 1 near the gene CACNA1E with time to progression from inflammatory to stricturing or penetrating CD. Predicting the time to progression is useful to the clinician in terms of individualizing patients' management.